| | |  | Collectible Trading Card Games | Home » » » » » Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions | | | | | | | Description: | | How do we think about money? What caused bankers to lose sight of the economy? What caused individuals to take on mortgages that were not within their means? What irrational forces guided our decisions? And how can we recover from an economic crisis?
In this revised and expanded edition of the New York Times and Wall Street Journal bestseller Predictably Irrational, Duke University's behavioral economist Dan Ariely explores the hidden forces that shape our decisions, including some of the causes responsible for the current economic crisis. Bringing a much-needed dose of sophisticated psychological study to the realm of public policy, Ariely offers his own insights into the irrationalities of everyday life, the decisions that led us to the financial meltdown of 2008, and the general ways we get ourselves into trouble. Blending common experiences and clever experiments with groundbreaking analysis, Ariely demonstrates how expectations, emotions, social norms, and other invisible, seemingly illogical forces skew our reasoning abilities. As he explains, our reliance on standard economic theory to design personal, national, and global policies may, in fact, be dangerous. The mistakes that we make as individuals and institutions are not random, and they can aggregate in the market—with devastating results. In light of our current economic crisis, the consequences of these systematic and predictable mistakes have never been clearer. Packed with new studies and thought-provoking responses to readers' questions and comments, this revised and expanded edition of Predictably Irrational will change the way we interact with the world—from the small decisions we make in our own lives to the individual and collective choices that shape our economy. | | | Product Details: | | | Author:
| Dan Ariely | | Hardcover:
| 400 pages | | Publisher:
| Harper | | Publication Date:
| May 19, 2009 | | Language:
| English | | ISBN:
| 0061854549 | | Product Length:
| 9.24 inches | | Product Width:
| 6.38 inches | | Product Height:
| 1.35 inches | | Product Weight:
| 1.25 pounds | | Package Length:
| 9.1 inches | | Package Width:
| 6.4 inches | | Package Height:
| 1.2 inches | | Package Weight:
| 1.45 pounds | | Average Customer Rating:
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238 of 259 found the following review helpful:
Made me think through some things I'd overlooked about market behaviorJun 27, 2009
By Drifty
"Drifty"
I have been thinking about economics seriously for nearly 30 years. Classical economics is built to no small degree on the notion that people will generally act in their own best self interest, after rationally and intelligently examining their options. This fit my world view fine in my first career as an engineer (BS and MS in Electrical Engineering).
From my 2nd Career as a Business Development person (MBA), I began to have to deal with people's tendency to not entirely think things through.
Here in this book, we have a professor who runs socioeconomic tests on his MBA students. These students are smart enough, worldly enough, experienced enough, and educated enough to approximate the standard economic assumptions and produce reasonably rational behavior.
Guess what. Even among broad experiments conducted on multiple MBA classes over time, one can predictably pre-bias the outcome of a particular run of a socioeconomic experiment by what seeds you plant in the class members' minds before the experiment. For example, in one experiment in estimating prices, the author requires his students to write the last two digits of their social security numbers on the top of the paper. Simply the act of writing a high number (e.g., 88) versus a low number (e.g., 08) produced statistically significant correlatable influences on the students' later price estimates. Those compelled to write "88" at the top of their papers would reliably estimate higher prices than those compelled to write "08" at the top of their papers, to a statistically significant degree.
Extrapolating to "real life." Watching Fox News will tend to make you more conservative without you knowing it. Watching MSNBC news will tend to make you more liberal without you knowing it.
If you want to understand "real truth," you are just going to have to do a little more than self-select your news feeds. You are going to have to seriously consider a diversity of viewpoints.
Moreover, if you have Social Darwinist beliefs as I once did, you may need to re-think the concept of the Poverty Trap. Early pre-conditioning really does make a difference.
Here is the way I think of it as an Engineer. Classical Economic Theory is analogous to Classical Newtonian Physics. There is nothing badly wrong with it, and it is a good approximation for most real world problems at the middle of the distribution.
However, General Relativity is indeed more correct that Classical Newtonian Physics, and the additional knowledge makes a real difference in certain special cases. And, those special cases are sometimes the really important ones. Likewise, Behavioral Economics is adding something very valuable to our knowledge of Classical Economics.
Read this only if you are brave enough to contemplate that the world might be a little more complex than we wish it were.
81 of 86 found the following review helpful:
An excellent book which provides valuable insightsMay 20, 2009
By Irfan A. Alvi This book and Dan Ariely have recieved a lot of media attention, so I approached the book with some skepticism, thinking that it might be overhyped. I'm pleased to report that my skepticism turned out to be unwarranted.
The book has many strengths, the main one being that it convincingly presents many ways people are wired and/or conditioned to be irrational, usually without even being aware of it. This eye-opening revelation can be a bit disheartening, but the good news is that we can fix at least some of this irrationality by being aware of how it can arise and then making a steady effort to override it or compensate for it. That's not an easy task, but it can be done. As a simple example, I've programmed a realistic exercise schedule into my PDA, and I've been very consistent with my exercise because of that. The PDA imposes a discipline on me which I couldn't otherwise impose on myself (as I know from experience).
The book is also well written, and I would even say enjoyable to read. The many experiments described in the book are presented in a lively way which elicits interest, and Ariely goes into just the right amount of detail -- enough to convey the basic experimental designs, results, and plausible interpretations, without boring the reader by getting into esoteric points which are more appropriate for journal papers.
The one criticism I have of the book, which applies to most of Western pscyhology, is that most of the described experiments used US college students as subjects. That raises a serious question regarding the extent to which the results can be generalized to people of the same age who aren't college students, people of other ages, and people outside the US. Study of cultural psychology reveals that differences due to these factors can be profound, and Ariely himself notes a Korean study where such differences were observed, but he doesn't really elaborate on the point.
Despite this one criticism, I think this is an excellent and authoritative book, and among the better ones in the "why smart people do dumb things" genre, so I highly recommend it. The insights revealed are both fascinating and practical, if you can muster the discipline to apply them.
242 of 269 found the following review helpful:
Welcome to the fuzzy world of being human.Feb 19, 2008
By D. Stuart
"Researcher at Kudos"
Dan Ariely is the guy you'd want at your dinner party. He's witty, smart and also very inclusive - sharing his passion for the way humans tick in a way that makes us feel great about the fact that, rational as we like to think we are, we make bad snap decisions, we cheat and we get ruled by our heart precisely when the facts are screaming "go the other way!" There's a lot in this writing which celebrates our human-ness. Why do we do this?
What Ariely has done here is shift a lot of the thinking developed by such pioneers as Kahneman & Tversky who worked in behavioural economics, and moved it into the everyday sphere. And he's done a great, insightful job. Where the behavioural economists are focused on financial decisions (why we buy high and sell low - and confound the assumptions of the classic economists who assume 'the rational man,) Ariely eschews the technical language and walks us through everyday examples of our often fuzzy and quite irrational decision-making.
The result is utterly engaging - and this easy 300 page read still has academic rigour and strong foundations. Ariely cites many experiments and examples, and shows that we often get things wrong because we frame things the wrong way, mis-judge probabilities, apply heuristic rules of thumb that don't always work, or we just plain let our emotions rule.
We love to think that we're educated, rational and moral. Yet who hasn't overestimated the upside on a sure-fire investment, bought some clothing that we knew was a mistake even as we bought it, or got our wires crossed between work-rules and social rules? This book is fascinating, entertaining and very, very illuminating.
- Recommended for the general public, but I'd urge marketers, market researchers and business people to read this one carefully. Dan provides excellent dinner-party insights, but they apply to our real world and explain why so many poor decisions are made - whether by customers or by the 'rational' business people who make million-dollar decisions.
- Recommended companion book: Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness here one of the godfathers of behavioural economics discusses the way we can manage the "choice architecture" in our world.
70 of 81 found the following review helpful:
Sometimes shallow, sometimes wrongJun 01, 2008
By Chris Varo First, the good points.
The author turns our attention to some important things in human behavior. The comparison between 'social norms' (where people help each other and do good things for free) and the 'market behavior' is very interesting. Social norms in the work-place and social norms in education are very positive things.
Another very important point is the observation that young people can not make correct decisions when aroused. Thus, "Just Say No!" is really the right answer!
The negatives.
Well, many experiments and observations lack depth and scope. Most are done with students in prominent universities and therefore, can not be spread on the entire society. Young students often live in a special world of their own.
Next, the author sometimes extrapolates quite wrongly. For instance, in Chapter 11 where he discusses honesty/dishonesty in society, on pp. 214-215 the author writes:
"Adam Smith reminded us that honesty really is the best policy, especially in business. To get a glimpse at the other side of this realization - at the downside, in a society without trust - you can take a look at several countries. In China the word of one person in one region rarely carries to another region...Iran is another example of a nation stricken by distrust. An Iranian student at MIT told me that business there lacks a platform of trust".
OK, in the June 2008 issue of Scientific American there is a research article on the neurobiology of trust. On page 95 in that article we see a table 'National Trust' showing the trust levels in different countries. In this list of 30 countries the highest level of trust is found in Norway (above 60%), while China comes third (above 50%) and Iran fourth (50%), way above many European countries.
So, just because "An Iranian student at MIT told me", the author branded Iran as a nation "stricken by distrust" - and this in found in the chapter on honesty! What about the scientific method?
33 of 37 found the following review helpful:
`Think how hard physics would be if particles could think.'Jul 25, 2008
By J. Cameron-Smith
"Expect the Unexpected"
While it is comforting to know that so many decisions are made on from irrational bases, it is discomforting to be made quite so aware of it. No, I take that back: it is quite reassuring to know that while the principles of logic have their place, people are influenced by other factors.
Professor Ariely explains some of the factors that influence our decisionmaking: from the influence of emotions to the sometimes agonising choice between options; the pitfalls of procrastination and the lure of free offers. And why is it that we are often perfectly willing to do something for nothing, but not if payment is involved? From the discussion of the creation of a market for black pearls through discussion of types of dishonesty, Professor Ariely provides insights into human behaviour, in many cases backed by experiments that have tested his hypotheses.
This book is primarily focussed on behavioural economics, but I would argue that it would be of interest to a far wider group of readers. We are all decisionmakers and our decisions impact on others. I believe that many of us with a specific interest in public policy or management, in marketing, or in human behaviour more generally would find value in reading this book. While many of the concepts are profound, the subject matter is presented in a readable and entertaining way.
Jennifer Cameron-Smith
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